Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists3
- Tim StutzlePoints4
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:07Claude Giroux Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (12)6–3
- P312:41Tim Stützle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (8), Claude Giroux (9)5–3
- P311:56Dominik Kubalik Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (6), Vladimir Tarasenko (8)4–3
- P37:42Nicholas Robertson Goal (1) Batted, assists: Max Domi (6), Calle Jarnkrok (5)3–3
- P214:06Jakob Chychrun Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (11), Mathieu Joseph (7)3–2
- P24:16Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (11), John Tavares (9)2–2
- P21:04Claude Giroux Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (6), Tim Stützle (10)2–1
- P17:11Dominik Kubalik Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (1), Roby Jarventie (1)1–1
- P15:47William Nylander Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (6), John Tavares (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:04Claude Giroux Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (6), Tim Stützle (10)OTT 2 – 1 TOR · OTT 46% → 63% +18OTT 46% → 63%+18 pts
- P24:16Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (11), John Tavares (9)OTT 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 36% → 54% +19TOR 36% → 54%+19 pts
- P214:06Jakob Chychrun Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (11), Mathieu Joseph (7)OTT 3 – 2 TOR · OTT 46% → 68% +22OTT 46% → 68%+22 pts
- P37:42Nicholas Robertson Goal (1) Batted, assists: Max Domi (6), Calle Jarnkrok (5)OTT 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 23% → 52% +30TOR 23% → 52%+30 pts
- P311:56Dominik Kubalik Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (6), Vladimir Tarasenko (8)OTT 4 – 3 TOR · OTT 48% → 83% +35OTT 48% → 83%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- OTT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −1 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 31 |
| 18th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.