Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Martin PospisilAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:12Travis Hamonic Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (14), Claude Giroux (10)1–4
- P33:50Rourke Chartier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominik Kubalik (1), Drake Batherson (4)1–3
- P215:52Blake Coleman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (1)1–2
- P23:07Drake Batherson Goal (4) Batted, assists: Brady Tkachuk (4), Jakob Chychrun (7)0–2
- P111:21Mathieu Joseph Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (7), Tim Stützle (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:21Mathieu Joseph Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (7), Tim Stützle (13)CGY 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 58% → 73% +15OTT 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P23:07Drake Batherson Goal (4) Batted, assists: Brady Tkachuk (4), Jakob Chychrun (7)CGY 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 74% → 87% +13OTT 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P215:52Blake Coleman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (1)CGY 1 – 2 OTT · CGY 10% → 23% +14CGY 10% → 23%+14 pts
- P33:50Rourke Chartier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominik Kubalik (1), Drake Batherson (4)CGY 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 79% → 94% +14OTT 79% → 94%+14 pts
- P35:12Travis Hamonic Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (14), Claude Giroux (10)CGY 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 94% → 99% +5OTT 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Fair odds
- OTT -145
- CGY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −10 | CGY: Dustin Wolf (no track record yet) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +63 Elo | OTT 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 9th of 3153.8% | Shot share | 52.2%10th of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%28th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 24th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.