Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints3
Senators- Artem ZubGoals1
- Matthew HighmoreAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:28Elias Pettersson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (16), J.T. Miller (12)5–2
- P39:23Ilya Mikheyev Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Elias Pettersson (17), Andrei Kuzmenko (9)4–2
- P218:08J.T. Miller Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (4), Ian Cole (3)3–2
- P210:58Artem Zub Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (3), Matthew Highmore (1)2–2
- P118:15Drake Batherson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P13:00Ilya Mikheyev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (16), Andrei Kuzmenko (8)2–0
- P10:15Brock Boeser Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (3), Filip Hronek (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Brock Boeser Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (3), Filip Hronek (14)VAN 1 – 0 OTT · VAN 49% → 64% +14VAN 49% → 64%+14 pts
- P118:15Drake Batherson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 19% → 33% +14OTT 19% → 33%+14 pts
- P210:58Artem Zub Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (3), Matthew Highmore (1)VAN 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 30% → 50% +20OTT 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P218:08J.T. Miller Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (4), Ian Cole (3)VAN 3 – 2 OTT · VAN 50% → 72% +23VAN 50% → 72%+23 pts
- P39:23Ilya Mikheyev Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Elias Pettersson (17), Andrei Kuzmenko (9)VAN 4 – 2 OTT · VAN 81% → 96% +15VAN 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Fair odds
- OTT -102
- VAN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.1 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +4 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +2 Elo | VAN 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.5 | Goals scored | 4.02nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.521st of 31 |
| 1st of 31+2.5 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.5% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3193.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 6th of 314–2 | Road vs home | 3–417th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.