Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Canadiens- Kaiden GuhleGoals1
- Kaiden GuhleAssists1
- Kaiden GuhlePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:13Kaiden Guhle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P312:58Brad Marchand Goal (7) Deflected, assists: James van Riemsdyk (7), David Pastrnak (11)2–2
- P30:51Brendan Gallagher Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Jake Evans (2)1–2
- P30:24Nick Suzuki Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (8), Cole Caufield (9)1–1
- P10:36Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7), Brad Marchand (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:36Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7), Brad Marchand (8)BOS 1 – 0 MTL · BOS 47% → 61% +14BOS 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P30:24Nick Suzuki Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (8), Cole Caufield (9)BOS 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 28% → 52% +24MTL 28% → 52%+24 pts
- P30:51Brendan Gallagher Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Jake Evans (2)BOS 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 52% → 76% +24MTL 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P312:58Brad Marchand Goal (7) Deflected, assists: James van Riemsdyk (7), David Pastrnak (11)BOS 2 – 2 MTL · BOS 14% → 49% +35BOS 14% → 49%+35 pts
- OT2:13Kaiden Guhle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 51% → 96% +45MTL 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 46%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | −11 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.41 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 1st of 311.9 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 46.2%26th of 31 |
| 1st of 3193.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 2nd of 315–1 | Road vs home | 4–311th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.