Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Canadiens- Arber XhekajGoals1
- Jordan HarrisAssists1
- Mike MathesonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:42Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (14), Brock Boeser (6)5–2
- P319:11Arber Xhekaj Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (3), Jake Allen (1)4–2
- P318:30Brock Boeser Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (3), Tyler Myers (4)4–1
- P36:46Mike Matheson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (7), Josh Anderson (2)3–1
- P217:57Dakota Joshua Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (3), Filip Hronek (16)3–0
- P29:17Ilya Mikheyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (10)2–0
- P26:15Conor Garland Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (13), Quinn Hughes (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:15Conor Garland Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (13), Quinn Hughes (18)VAN 1 – 0 MTL · VAN 47% → 66% +19VAN 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P29:17Ilya Mikheyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (10)VAN 2 – 0 MTL · VAN 67% → 83% +16VAN 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P217:57Dakota Joshua Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (3), Filip Hronek (16)VAN 3 – 0 MTL · VAN 87% → 96% +9VAN 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P36:46Mike Matheson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (7), Josh Anderson (2)VAN 3 – 1 MTL · MTL 1% → 7% +6MTL 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P318:30Brock Boeser Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (3), Tyler Myers (4)VAN 4 – 1 MTL · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Fair odds
- MTL -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −2 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +14 Elo | MTL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.4 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.2 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 1st of 31+2.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 20th of 3148.5% | Shot share | 46.4%26th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 9th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.