Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Maple Leafs- Noah GregorGoals1
- Max DomiAssists2
- Noah GregorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:13David Kampf Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (1), Bobby McMann (2)2–5
- P34:56Nicholas Robertson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (9)2–4
- P214:22Noah Gregor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (10), Bobby McMann (1)2–3
- P24:53William Nylander Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (10), Tyler Bertuzzi (3)2–2
- P115:48Pius Suter Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (4), Filip Hronek (15)2–1
- P18:37Matthew Knies Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (2), Max Domi (8)1–1
- P15:43J.T. Miller Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (17), Elias Pettersson (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:37Matthew Knies Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (2), Max Domi (8)VAN 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 33% → 49% +15TOR 33% → 49%+15 pts
- P115:48Pius Suter Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (4), Filip Hronek (15)VAN 2 – 1 TOR · VAN 51% → 68% +16VAN 51% → 68%+16 pts
- P24:53William Nylander Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (10), Tyler Bertuzzi (3)VAN 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 31% → 49% +18TOR 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P214:22Noah Gregor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (10), Bobby McMann (1)VAN 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 49% → 70% +21TOR 49% → 70%+21 pts
- P34:56Nicholas Robertson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (9)VAN 2 – 4 TOR · TOR 76% → 92% +16TOR 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -106
- TOR +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.2 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +25 | −11 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.62 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +68 Elo | VAN 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.5 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+2.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.7% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3193.6% | Save percentage | 88.9%23rd of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 7th of 315–2 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.