Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists1
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Bruins- Trent FredericGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:29Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (2), Juraj Slafkovsky (3)2–5
- P35:39James van Riemsdyk Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (11), David Pastrnak (16)1–5
- P215:30Trent Frederic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (9), Jake DeBrusk (5)1–4
- P213:04Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (10), Alex Newhook (6)1–3
- P25:18Pavel Zacha Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (3), David Pastrnak (15)0–3
- P119:20Trent Frederic Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (4), Charlie Coyle (8)0–2
- P17:11Charlie McAvoy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (10), David Pastrnak (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:11Charlie McAvoy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (10), David Pastrnak (14)MTL 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 71% +14BOS 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P119:20Trent Frederic Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (4), Charlie Coyle (8)MTL 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 72% → 85% +13BOS 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P25:18Pavel Zacha Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (3), David Pastrnak (15)MTL 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 86% → 94% +8BOS 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P213:04Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (10), Alex Newhook (6)MTL 1 – 3 BOS · MTL 4% → 11% +7MTL 4% → 11%+7 pts
- P215:30Trent Frederic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (9), Jake DeBrusk (5)MTL 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 89% → 97% +7BOS 89% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -132
- MTL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +12 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +101 Elo | BOS 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.01st of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +1.42nd of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.5% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 93.6%1st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 20th of 312–3 | Road vs home | 6–11st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.