Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Sabres- Victor OlofssonGoals2
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Victor OlofssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:02Victor Olofsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (5), Casey Mittelstadt (10)5–2
- P215:07Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (8), Dylan Cozens (5)5–1
- P212:23Hampus Lindholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (13), Brad Marchand (9)5–0
- P24:07Oskar Steen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (1)4–0
- P115:14Brandon Carlo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (12), Pavel Zacha (7)3–0
- P14:09David Pastrnak Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (6), Charlie McAvoy (9)2–0
- P13:01Danton Heinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (8), Matthew Poitras (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:01Danton Heinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (8), Matthew Poitras (4)BOS 1 – 0 BUF · BOS 46% → 61% +15BOS 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P14:09David Pastrnak Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (6), Charlie McAvoy (9)BOS 2 – 0 BUF · BOS 61% → 75% +13BOS 61% → 75%+13 pts
- P115:14Brandon Carlo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (12), Pavel Zacha (7)BOS 3 – 0 BUF · BOS 78% → 88% +11BOS 78% → 88%+11 pts
- P24:07Oskar Steen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (1)BOS 4 – 0 BUF · BOS 91% → 96% +6BOS 91% → 96%+6 pts
- P212:23Hampus Lindholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (13), Brad Marchand (9)BOS 5 – 0 BUF · BOS 98% → >99% +1BOS 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 50%
- Fair odds
- BUF -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 1st of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3193.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 6th of 315–2 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.