Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals2
- Ryan GravesAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:11Erik Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (11), Sidney Crosby (8)0–4
- P30:27Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Reilly Smith (6), Evgeni Malkin (8)0–3
- P216:24Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (5), Ryan Graves (4)0–2
- P119:01Evgeni Malkin Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ryan Graves (3), Radim Zohorna (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:01Evgeni Malkin Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ryan Graves (3), Radim Zohorna (2)BUF 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 58% → 74% +16PIT 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P216:24Drew O'Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (5), Ryan Graves (4)BUF 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 77% → 91% +14PIT 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P30:27Erik Karlsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Reilly Smith (6), Evgeni Malkin (8)BUF 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 92% → 98% +6PIT 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P318:11Erik Karlsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (11), Sidney Crosby (8)BUF 0 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → 100% +0PIT >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 60%
- Fair odds
- PIT -147
- BUF +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +8 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +72 Elo | PIT 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.3% | Shot share | 54.1%6th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 12th of 313–3 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.