Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:27Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (9), Mats Zuccarello (12)2–3
- P33:33JJ Peterka Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (6), Jeff Skinner (6)1–3
- P219:02Jeff Skinner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (4)1–2
- P119:30Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (6), Mats Zuccarello (11)1–1
- P118:02Henri Jokiharju Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:02Henri Jokiharju Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (7)MIN 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 58% → 74% +16BUF 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P119:30Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (6), Mats Zuccarello (11)MIN 1 – 1 BUF · MIN 26% → 42% +16MIN 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P219:02Jeff Skinner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (4)MIN 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 56% → 78% +22BUF 56% → 78%+22 pts
- P33:33JJ Peterka Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (6), Jeff Skinner (6)MIN 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 80% → 94% +14BUF 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P312:27Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (9), Mats Zuccarello (12)MIN 2 – 3 BUF · MIN 2% → 13% +12MIN 2% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 62%
- Fair odds
- BUF -148
- MIN +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −20 | −12 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.51 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +82 Elo | BUF 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 31 |
| 29th of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 3.214th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 48.8%20th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 25th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.