Minnesota Wild at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists2
- Vincent TrocheckPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:39Artemi Panarin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (6), Jacob Trouba (4)1–4
- P314:39Blake Wheeler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (2), Alexis Lafrenière (4)1–3
- P31:41Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (14), Vincent Trocheck (5)1–2
- P212:33Brandon Duhaime Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (5), Ryan Hartman (4)1–1
- P13:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (3), Erik Gustafsson (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (3), Erik Gustafsson (6)MIN 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 55% → 70% +14NYR 55% → 70%+14 pts
- P212:33Brandon Duhaime Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (5), Ryan Hartman (4)MIN 1 – 1 NYR · MIN 26% → 46% +20MIN 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P31:41Alexis Lafrenière Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (14), Vincent Trocheck (5)MIN 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 53% → 77% +24NYR 53% → 77%+24 pts
- P314:39Blake Wheeler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (2), Alexis Lafrenière (4)MIN 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 90% → >99% +10NYR 90% → >99%+10 pts
- P318:39Artemi Panarin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (6), Jacob Trouba (4)MIN 1 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Fair odds
- NYR -125
- MIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −6 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYR: Louis Domingue (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +53 Elo | NYR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 29th of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 2.44th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.4 | Margin | +1.05th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.1% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.3% | Save percentage | 91.7%9th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 20th of 312–4 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.