Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Derek RyanAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Panthers- Niko MikkolaGoals2
- Kevin StenlundAssists2
- Kevin StenlundPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:17Sam Bennett Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (2), Gustav Forsling (4)3–5
- P213:42Kevin Stenlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (3)3–4
- P26:08Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7)3–3
- P25:00Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P115:53Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1)2–2
- P110:36Carter Verhaeghe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (12)2–1
- P19:00Evander Kane Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (2), Ryan McLeod (3)2–0
- P15:59Connor McDavid Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (16), Evan Bouchard (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:59Connor McDavid Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (16), Evan Bouchard (13)EDM 1 – 0 FLA · EDM 44% → 60% +15EDM 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P115:53Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1)EDM 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 38% → 55% +17FLA 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P25:00Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 2 FLA · EDM 45% → 64% +19EDM 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P26:08Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7)EDM 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 35% → 54% +19FLA 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P213:42Kevin Stenlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (3)EDM 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 54% → 74% +20FLA 54% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 60%
- Fair odds
- FLA -127
- EDM +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +7 | EDM: Calvin Pickard (no track record yet) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +68 Elo | FLA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.1% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%13th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 27th of 312–6 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.