Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Pierre-Edouard BellemareGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Pierre-Edouard BellemarePoints1
Oilers- Evander KaneGoals3
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evander KanePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:57Evander Kane Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (7), Evan Bouchard (12)3–4
- P319:14Evander Kane Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8)3–3
- P313:28Evander Kane Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (11), Mattias Ekholm (4)3–2
- P217:21Alex Wennberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (7), Oliver Bjorkstrand (7)3–1
- P29:24Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tye Kartye (3), Vince Dunn (13)2–1
- P27:20Jared McCann Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Jamie Oleksiak (4)1–1
- P25:21Connor McDavid Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (14), Evan Bouchard (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:21Connor McDavid Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (14), Evan Bouchard (10)SEA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 54% → 72% +18EDM 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P27:20Jared McCann Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Jamie Oleksiak (4)SEA 1 – 1 EDM · SEA 27% → 46% +18SEA 27% → 46%+18 pts
- P29:24Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tye Kartye (3), Vince Dunn (13)SEA 2 – 1 EDM · SEA 46% → 66% +20SEA 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P319:14Evander Kane Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8)SEA 3 – 3 EDM · EDM <1% → 51% +51EDM <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:57Evander Kane Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (7), Evan Bouchard (12)SEA 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 51% → 98% +47EDM 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Fair odds
- EDM -125
- SEA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +10 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +55 Elo | EDM 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 31 |
| 24th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.728th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.1 | Margin | −0.927th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.7% | Shot share | 54.0%7th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 87.4%31st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–5 | Road vs home | 1–530th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.