New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Mathew BarzalPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:33Evander Kane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13)1–4
- P39:33Connor McDavid Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (12)1–3
- P37:35Zach Hyman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (9), Leon Draisaitl (11)1–2
- P114:17Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (2)1–1
- P10:40Mathew Barzal Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (7), Ryan Pulock (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:40Mathew Barzal Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (7), Ryan Pulock (3)NYI 1 – 0 EDM · NYI 44% → 59% +15NYI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P114:17Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (2)NYI 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 38% → 55% +17EDM 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P37:35Zach Hyman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (9), Leon Draisaitl (11)NYI 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 53% → 81% +28EDM 53% → 81%+28 pts
- P39:33Connor McDavid Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (12)NYI 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 82% → 96% +14EDM 82% → 96%+14 pts
- P317:33Evander Kane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13)NYI 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Fair odds
- EDM -126
- NYI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −23 | +4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +58 Elo | EDM 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.929th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −1.230th of 31 |
| 29th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 86.6%31st of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 12th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 0–530th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.