Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Derek RyanGoals2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Derek RyanPoints2
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Mikhail SergachevAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:05Mikhail Sergachev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (3)4–6
- P310:07Luke Glendening Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cole Koepke (1), Darren Raddysh (7)4–5
- P39:28Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (14), Brayden Point (16)4–4
- P38:04Evan Bouchard Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10)4–3
- P33:54Tanner Jeannot Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (2), Mikhail Sergachev (11)3–3
- P215:55Derek Ryan Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (4), Mattias Ekholm (5)3–2
- P212:56Nikita Kucherov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (10), Darren Raddysh (6)2–2
- P119:09Nikita Kucherov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (12), Brayden Point (15)2–1
- P18:31James Hamblin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P13:39Derek Ryan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (9), Cody Ceci (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:55Derek Ryan Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (4), Mattias Ekholm (5)EDM 3 – 2 TB · EDM 47% → 69% +22EDM 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P33:54Tanner Jeannot Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (2), Mikhail Sergachev (11)EDM 3 – 3 TB · TB 26% → 52% +26TB 26% → 52%+26 pts
- P38:04Evan Bouchard Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10)EDM 4 – 3 TB · EDM 48% → 78% +30EDM 48% → 78%+30 pts
- P39:28Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (14), Brayden Point (16)EDM 4 – 4 TB · TB 21% → 52% +31TB 21% → 52%+31 pts
- P310:07Luke Glendening Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cole Koepke (1), Darren Raddysh (7)EDM 4 – 5 TB · TB 52% → 83% +31TB 52% → 83%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- EDM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −6 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +27 Elo | TB 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.414th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.5% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.8% | Save percentage | 89.4%22nd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 25th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 4–415th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.