Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Brayden PointAssists2
- Brayden PointPoints3
Blackhawks- Lukas ReichelGoals1
- Jason DickinsonAssists1
- Lukas ReichelPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:11Brandon Hagel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (9)4–2
- P311:53Victor Hedman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (4), Brayden Point (14)3–2
- P32:09Corey Perry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (4), Boris Katchouk (2)2–2
- P29:01Mikhail Sergachev Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (13), Steven Stamkos (11)2–1
- P24:40Brayden Point Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (15), Nikita Kucherov (13)1–1
- P112:59Lukas Reichel Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (5), Kevin Korchinski (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:59Lukas Reichel Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (5), Kevin Korchinski (4)TB 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 55% → 71% +15CHI 55% → 71%+15 pts
- P24:40Brayden Point Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (15), Nikita Kucherov (13)TB 1 – 1 CHI · TB 28% → 46% +18TB 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P29:01Mikhail Sergachev Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (13), Steven Stamkos (11)TB 2 – 1 CHI · TB 46% → 66% +20TB 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P32:09Corey Perry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (4), Boris Katchouk (2)TB 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 28% → 53% +25CHI 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P311:53Victor Hedman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (4), Brayden Point (14)TB 3 – 2 CHI · TB 48% → 83% +35TB 48% → 83%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 58%
- Fair odds
- CHI -126
- TB +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +3 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +58 Elo | CHI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.4% | Shot share | 43.3%30th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.6%7th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 27th of 312–6 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.