Edmonton Oilers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints2
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Jalen ChatfieldAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:56Brent Burns Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (5), Jaccob Slavin (8)3–6
- P33:46Zach Hyman Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11)3–5
- P217:48Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (4), Warren Foegele (5)2–5
- P22:13Martin Necas Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (6), Brady Skjei (11)1–5
- P117:13Zach Hyman Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (17), Evan Bouchard (14)1–4
- P114:48Seth Jarvis Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4), Jalen Chatfield (3)0–4
- P111:23Teuvo Teravainen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (11), Seth Jarvis (7)0–3
- P19:52Jack Drury Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (7), Dmitry Orlov (6)0–2
- P19:17Jesper Fast Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (5), Jalen Chatfield (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:17Jesper Fast Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (5), Jalen Chatfield (2)EDM 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 70% +15CAR 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P19:52Jack Drury Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (7), Dmitry Orlov (6)EDM 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 70% → 82% +12CAR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P111:23Teuvo Teravainen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (11), Seth Jarvis (7)EDM 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 83% → 91% +8CAR 83% → 91%+8 pts
- P114:48Seth Jarvis Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (4), Jalen Chatfield (3)EDM 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 92% → 96% +5CAR 92% → 96%+5 pts
- P33:46Zach Hyman Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11)EDM 3 – 5 CAR · EDM 1% → 7% +5EDM 1% → 7%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Fair odds
- CAR -126
- EDM +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +64 Elo | CAR 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.316th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 4th of 3153.7% | Shot share | 56.8%1st of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%29th of 31 |
| 23rd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–7 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.