Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Hurricanes- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Jack DruryAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:00Stefan Noesen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (6), Jack Drury (2)3–1
- P20:29Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (5), Scott Laughton (9)3–0
- P119:02Travis Konecny Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (3), Sean Couturier (8)2–0
- P11:50Owen Tippett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (2), Louie Belpedio (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:50Owen Tippett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (2), Louie Belpedio (1)PHI 1 – 0 CAR · PHI 45% → 60% +15PHI 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P119:02Travis Konecny Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (3), Sean Couturier (8)PHI 2 – 0 CAR · PHI 63% → 78% +15PHI 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P20:29Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (5), Scott Laughton (9)PHI 3 – 0 CAR · PHI 79% → 89% +11PHI 79% → 89%+11 pts
- P211:00Stefan Noesen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (6), Jack Drury (2)PHI 3 – 1 CAR · CAR 7% → 17% +10CAR 7% → 17%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Fair odds
- CAR -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +10 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +40 Elo | CAR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 8th of 3153.6% | Shot share | 57.0%1st of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 12th of 314–4 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.