Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- Jaccob SlavinAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:22Seth Jarvis Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (10), Teuvo Teravainen (3)2–4
- P311:52Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jaccob Slavin (7), Brent Burns (4)2–3
- P39:16Sidney Crosby Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kris Letang (8), Bryan Rust (7)2–2
- P32:46Brent Burns Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (6), Andrei Svechnikov (5)1–2
- P213:06Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), Seth Jarvis (6)1–1
- P110:40Sidney Crosby Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (14), Erik Karlsson (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:40Sidney Crosby Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (14), Erik Karlsson (12)PIT 1 – 0 CAR · PIT 46% → 62% +16PIT 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P213:06Sebastian Aho Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), Seth Jarvis (6)PIT 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 32% → 53% +21CAR 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P32:46Brent Burns Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (6), Andrei Svechnikov (5)PIT 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 52% → 77% +25CAR 52% → 77%+25 pts
- P39:16Sidney Crosby Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kris Letang (8), Bryan Rust (7)PIT 2 – 2 CAR · PIT 18% → 48% +30PIT 18% → 48%+30 pts
- P311:52Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jaccob Slavin (7), Brent Burns (4)PIT 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 52% → 85% +33CAR 52% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Fair odds
- CAR -120
- PIT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −7 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +22 Elo | CAR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.7 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.6% | Shot share | 57.0%1st of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 5th of 315–2 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.