New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Curtis LazarGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Curtis LazarPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:44Tyler Toffoli Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (14), Luke Hughes (9)5–2
- P311:24Alexander Holtz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (1), Ondrej Palat (6)4–2
- P32:35Jesper Bratt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (8), Curtis Lazar (2)3–2
- P23:55Nathan Bastian Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Erik Haula (5), Dougie Hamilton (7)2–2
- P23:17Bryan Rust Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (11), Sidney Crosby (10)1–2
- P113:34Curtis Lazar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (4)1–1
- P16:36Bryan Rust Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:34Curtis Lazar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (4)NJ 1 – 1 PIT · NJ 29% → 45% +16NJ 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P23:17Bryan Rust Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (11), Sidney Crosby (10)NJ 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 55% → 72% +17PIT 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P23:55Nathan Bastian Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Erik Haula (5), Dougie Hamilton (7)NJ 2 – 2 PIT · NJ 28% → 45% +18NJ 28% → 45%+18 pts
- P32:35Jesper Bratt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (8), Curtis Lazar (2)NJ 3 – 2 PIT · NJ 47% → 72% +26NJ 47% → 72%+26 pts
- P311:24Alexander Holtz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (1), Ondrej Palat (6)NJ 4 – 2 PIT · NJ 82% → 97% +15NJ 82% → 97%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 59%
- Fair odds
- PIT -127
- NJ +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +12 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +66 Elo | PIT 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 2.67th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +1.05th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 54.2%5th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 91.8%7th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 11th of 314–3 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.