New Jersey Devils at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- John MarinoGoals1
- Curtis LazarAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists4
- Josh MorrisseyPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:30Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (7), Josh Morrissey (13)3–6
- P314:17Dawson Mercer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (6), Erik Haula (3)3–5
- P311:58Morgan Barron Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (5), Neal Pionk (5)2–5
- P39:54Kyle Connor Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (13), Josh Morrissey (12)2–4
- P218:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (8), Dylan Samberg (3)2–3
- P216:06John Marino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (1), Luke Hughes (7)2–2
- P214:54Timo Meier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (5), Jesper Bratt (13)1–2
- P213:54Cole Perfetti Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (7), Josh Morrissey (11)0–2
- P28:07Kyle Connor Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (10), Alex Iafallo (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:07Kyle Connor Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (10), Alex Iafallo (9)NJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 73% +19WPG 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P213:54Cole Perfetti Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (7), Josh Morrissey (11)NJ 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 74% → 88% +14WPG 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P214:54Timo Meier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (5), Jesper Bratt (13)NJ 1 – 2 WPG · NJ 11% → 26% +14NJ 11% → 26%+14 pts
- P216:06John Marino Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (1), Luke Hughes (7)NJ 2 – 2 WPG · NJ 25% → 46% +21NJ 25% → 46%+21 pts
- P218:10Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (8), Dylan Samberg (3)NJ 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 53% → 75% +22WPG 53% → 75%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Fair odds
- WPG -125
- NJ +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +3 | NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +56 Elo | WPG 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.415th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 25th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 7th of 314–2 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.