Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Jets- Brenden DillonGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists1
- Brenden DillonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:05Brenden Dillon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (12), Kyle Connor (6)3–2
- P211:57Matt Duchene Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (5), Evgenii Dadonov (2)3–1
- P28:28Cole Perfetti Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (4), Nikolaj Ehlers (4)2–1
- P25:20Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P22:13Thomas Harley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:13Thomas Harley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (4)DAL 1 – 0 WPG · DAL 46% → 64% +18DAL 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P25:20Wyatt Johnston Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 2 – 0 WPG · DAL 65% → 80% +16DAL 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P28:28Cole Perfetti Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (4), Nikolaj Ehlers (4)DAL 2 – 1 WPG · WPG 18% → 34% +16WPG 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P211:57Matt Duchene Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (5), Evgenii Dadonov (2)DAL 3 – 1 WPG · DAL 67% → 84% +16DAL 67% → 84%+16 pts
- P310:05Brenden Dillon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (12), Kyle Connor (6)DAL 3 – 2 WPG · WPG 4% → 20% +16WPG 4% → 20%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +3 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +46 Elo | WPG 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.6% | Shot share | 54.8%3rd of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 6th of 315–2 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.