Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints3
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:04Jason Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (7)5–2
- P33:47Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (4), Matt Duchene (5)4–2
- P216:34Matt Duchene Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (3)3–2
- P210:20Craig Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (1), Esa Lindell (4)2–2
- P19:29Mason Marchment Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Tyler Seguin (4)1–2
- P18:43Kirill Marchenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (5), Dmitri Voronkov (3)0–2
- P11:08Boone Jenner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (5), Jack Roslovic (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Boone Jenner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (5), Jack Roslovic (6)DAL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 55% → 68% +14CBJ 55% → 68%+14 pts
- P19:29Mason Marchment Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Tyler Seguin (4)DAL 1 – 2 CBJ · DAL 18% → 31% +12DAL 18% → 31%+12 pts
- P210:20Craig Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (1), Esa Lindell (4)DAL 2 – 2 CBJ · DAL 27% → 47% +19DAL 27% → 47%+19 pts
- P216:34Matt Duchene Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (3)DAL 3 – 2 CBJ · DAL 47% → 70% +22DAL 47% → 70%+22 pts
- P33:47Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (4), Matt Duchene (5)DAL 4 – 2 CBJ · DAL 74% → 91% +17DAL 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -120
- DAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +14 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +18 Elo | CBJ 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.625th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%12th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 7th of 314–2 | Road vs home | 3–417th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.