Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals3
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints4
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals1
- Justin DanforthAssists1
- Alexandre TexierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:23Sidney Crosby Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (6)5–3
- P314:28Sidney Crosby Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (10), Jake Guentzel (12)4–3
- P311:45Alexandre Texier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (1), Justin Danforth (3)3–3
- P38:40Erik Karlsson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (9), Rickard Rakell (4)3–2
- P27:04Jake Guentzel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (2), Sidney Crosby (9)2–2
- P119:28Yegor Chinakhov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (6), Zach Werenski (8)1–2
- P110:29Kirill Marchenko Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P14:10Sidney Crosby Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (4), Kris Letang (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:28Yegor Chinakhov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (6), Zach Werenski (8)PIT 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 70% +17CBJ 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P27:04Jake Guentzel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (2), Sidney Crosby (9)PIT 2 – 2 CBJ · PIT 29% → 47% +19PIT 29% → 47%+19 pts
- P38:40Erik Karlsson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (9), Rickard Rakell (4)PIT 3 – 2 CBJ · PIT 48% → 79% +30PIT 48% → 79%+30 pts
- P311:45Alexandre Texier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (1), Justin Danforth (3)PIT 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 17% → 51% +34CBJ 17% → 51%+34 pts
- P314:28Sidney Crosby Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (10), Jake Guentzel (12)PIT 4 – 3 CBJ · PIT 49% → 88% +39PIT 49% → 88%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -115
- PIT +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −9 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +19 Elo | PIT 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.9 | Margin | −0.825th of 31 |
| 6th of 3154.0% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 7th of 314–2 | Road vs home | 3–525th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.