Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Sean KuralyPoints1
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Jeff PetryAssists2
- Jeff PetryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:30Patrik Laine Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none4–5
- P32:33Jake Walman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (4), Joe Veleno (2)3–5
- P218:19Daniel Sprong Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (1)3–4
- P216:01Alex DeBrincat Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (6)3–3
- P25:41Sean Kuraly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Erik Gudbranson (3)3–2
- P118:14Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Batted, assists: Kirill Marchenko (5), Dmitri Voronkov (4)2–2
- P15:33Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (4)1–2
- P14:26Robby Fabbri Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (3), Jeff Petry (5)0–2
- P13:41Lucas Raymond Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: J.T. Compher (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:14Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Batted, assists: Kirill Marchenko (5), Dmitri Voronkov (4)CBJ 2 – 2 DET · CBJ 29% → 46% +16CBJ 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P25:41Sean Kuraly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Erik Gudbranson (3)CBJ 3 – 2 DET · CBJ 46% → 65% +19CBJ 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P216:01Alex DeBrincat Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Petry (6)CBJ 3 – 3 DET · DET 31% → 53% +22DET 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P218:19Daniel Sprong Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Klim Kostin (1)CBJ 3 – 4 DET · DET 53% → 75% +22DET 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P32:33Jake Walman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (4), Joe Veleno (2)CBJ 3 – 5 DET · DET 77% → 92% +15DET 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Fair odds
- DET -122
- CBJ +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −17 | CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +35 Elo | DET 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%17th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 28th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 4–413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.