Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean KuralyGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists2
- Erik GudbransonPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Alexis Lafrenière Goal Backhand0–1
- P319:49Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (4), Artemi Panarin (16)3–3
- P212:54Sean Kuraly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (2), Erik Gudbranson (5)3–2
- P212:35Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (5)2–2
- P211:17Alexis Lafrenière Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (7), Artemi Panarin (15)1–2
- P118:46Chris Kreider Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (7), Blake Wheeler (2)1–1
- P116:26Justin Danforth Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gudbranson (4), Zach Werenski (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:46Chris Kreider Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (7), Blake Wheeler (2)CBJ 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 38% → 56% +17NYR 38% → 56%+17 pts
- P211:17Alexis Lafrenière Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (7), Artemi Panarin (15)CBJ 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 55% → 74% +19NYR 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P212:35Adam Fantilli Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (5)CBJ 2 – 2 NYR · CBJ 26% → 45% +20CBJ 26% → 45%+20 pts
- P212:54Sean Kuraly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (2), Erik Gudbranson (5)CBJ 3 – 2 NYR · CBJ 46% → 67% +21CBJ 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P319:49Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (4), Artemi Panarin (16)CBJ 3 – 3 NYR · NYR <1% → 50% +50NYR <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 63%
- Fair odds
- NYR -131
- CBJ +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +7 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +93 Elo | NYR 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.34th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +1.24th of 31 |
| 19th of 3148.8% | Shot share | 48.4%21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 92.1%6th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 30th of 311–5 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.