Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists4
- Connor McDavidPoints4
CapitalsScoring summary
- P218:37Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (9), Connor McDavid (14)5–0
- P24:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)4–0
- P23:44Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12)3–0
- P115:24Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Batted, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Zach Hyman (8)2–0
- P114:10Evander Kane Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Vincent Desharnais (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:10Evander Kane Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Vincent Desharnais (1)EDM 1 – 0 WSH · EDM 44% → 61% +17EDM 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P115:24Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Batted, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Zach Hyman (8)EDM 2 – 0 WSH · EDM 61% → 76% +15EDM 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P23:44Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12)EDM 3 – 0 WSH · EDM 79% → 90% +11EDM 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P24:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)EDM 4 – 0 WSH · EDM 90% → 96% +6EDM 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P218:37Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (9), Connor McDavid (14)EDM 5 – 0 WSH · EDM >99% → >99% +1EDM >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Fair odds
- WSH -130
- EDM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +18 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +91 Elo | WSH 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 31 |
| 29th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.4% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 31 |
| 31st of 3187.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Road vs home | 7–410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.