Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Johnny GaudreauGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Johnny GaudreauPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:48Justin Danforth Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (2), Zach Werenski (10)3–4
- P313:34Hendrix Lapierre Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sonny Milano (4), Aliaksei Protas (5)2–4
- P37:01Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Cole Sillinger (6)2–3
- P215:47Alex Ovechkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (1)1–3
- P213:16Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (2), Hendrix Lapierre (2)1–2
- P25:05Sonny Milano Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (4), Hendrix Lapierre (1)1–1
- P23:27Johnny Gaudreau Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (3), Damon Severson (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:27Johnny Gaudreau Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (3), Damon Severson (5)CBJ 1 – 0 WSH · CBJ 45% → 63% +18CBJ 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P25:05Sonny Milano Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (4), Hendrix Lapierre (1)CBJ 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 36% → 55% +19WSH 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P213:16Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (2), Hendrix Lapierre (2)CBJ 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 55% → 75% +20WSH 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P215:47Alex Ovechkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (1)CBJ 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 75% → 90% +14WSH 75% → 90%+14 pts
- P37:01Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Cole Sillinger (6)CBJ 2 – 3 WSH · CBJ 5% → 19% +14CBJ 5% → 19%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 64%
- Fair odds
- WSH -131
- CBJ +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +22 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.54 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +97 Elo | WSH 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.67th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.8% | Shot share | 49.3%18th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%9th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 30th of 311–6 | Road vs home | 5–411th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.