Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Victor OlofssonAssists2
- Victor OlofssonPoints2
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:52Dylan Strome Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (10)3–4
- P318:45Tom Wilson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (2), John Carlson (9)3–3
- P216:18Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (12), Casey Mittelstadt (12)3–2
- P27:50T.J. Oshie Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (4)2–2
- P117:01Alexander Alexeyev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (1), Trevor van Riemsdyk (3)2–1
- P116:04Zach Benson Goal (1) Between Legs, assists: Victor Olofsson (3)2–0
- P110:09JJ Peterka Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (2), Victor Olofsson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:09JJ Peterka Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (2), Victor Olofsson (2)BUF 1 – 0 WSH · BUF 45% → 61% +16BUF 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P27:50T.J. Oshie Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (4)BUF 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 35% → 54% +19WSH 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P216:18Dylan Cozens Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (12), Casey Mittelstadt (12)BUF 3 – 2 WSH · BUF 46% → 69% +22BUF 46% → 69%+22 pts
- P318:45Tom Wilson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (2), John Carlson (9)BUF 3 – 3 WSH · WSH <1% → 51% +50WSH <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT4:52Dylan Strome Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (10)BUF 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 50% → >99% +50WSH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Fair odds
- WSH -125
- BUF +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −3 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +55 Elo | WSH 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.8% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%10th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–5 | Road vs home | 6–410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.