Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints3
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:36Erik Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (11), Rasmus Dahlin (11)3–2
- P217:28Philipp Kurashev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (6), Lukas Reichel (3)2–2
- P210:55Jeff Skinner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (10), JJ Peterka (7)2–1
- P23:28Taylor Raddysh Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (6), Nick Foligno (7)1–1
- P14:53Rasmus Dahlin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (4), JJ Peterka (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:53Rasmus Dahlin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (4), JJ Peterka (6)BUF 1 – 0 CHI · BUF 49% → 64% +15BUF 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P23:28Taylor Raddysh Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (6), Nick Foligno (7)BUF 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 32% → 51% +18CHI 32% → 51%+18 pts
- P210:55Jeff Skinner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (10), JJ Peterka (7)BUF 2 – 1 CHI · BUF 50% → 70% +20BUF 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P217:28Philipp Kurashev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (6), Lukas Reichel (3)BUF 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 28% → 50% +22CHI 28% → 50%+22 pts
- P310:36Erik Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (11), Rasmus Dahlin (11)BUF 3 – 2 CHI · BUF 50% → 82% +32BUF 50% → 82%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 51%
- Fair odds
- CHI -103
- BUF +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +4 Elo | CHI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 43.1%30th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%8th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 21st of 313–5 | Road vs home | 1–431st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.