Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists2
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:00JJ Peterka Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (9), Zach Benson (3)2–3
- P28:12Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (7), Vladislav Namestnikov (7)1–3
- P24:56Alex Tuch Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P24:33Mason Appleton Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nino Niederreiter (6), Adam Lowry (8)0–2
- P22:12Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (6), Neal Pionk (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:12Cole Perfetti Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (6), Neal Pionk (6)BUF 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 72% +17WPG 54% → 72%+17 pts
- P24:33Mason Appleton Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nino Niederreiter (6), Adam Lowry (8)BUF 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 72% → 85% +14WPG 72% → 85%+14 pts
- P24:56Alex Tuch Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 2 WPG · BUF 14% → 28% +14BUF 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P28:12Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (7), Vladislav Namestnikov (7)BUF 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 73% → 86% +14WPG 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P31:00JJ Peterka Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (9), Zach Benson (3)BUF 2 – 3 WPG · BUF 8% → 23% +15BUF 8% → 23%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -125
- BUF +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +51 Elo | WPG 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.69th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 31 |
| 17th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%26th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 20th of 313–4 | Road vs home | 4–413th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.