Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Jason DickinsonAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints1
Predators- Cole SmithGoals2
- Colton SissonsAssists1
- Cole SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Cole Smith Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (1), Dante Fabbro (3)2–4
- P312:15Tyler Johnson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (5)2–3
- P216:20Cole Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (2), Michael McCarron (2)1–3
- P213:05Philipp Kurashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (5), Seth Jones (7)1–2
- P118:32Gustav Nyquist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (7), Filip Forsberg (12)0–2
- P112:07Yakov Trenin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:07Yakov Trenin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (2)CHI 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 70% +15NSH 54% → 70%+15 pts
- P118:32Gustav Nyquist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (7), Filip Forsberg (12)CHI 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 71% → 84% +13NSH 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P213:05Philipp Kurashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (5), Seth Jones (7)CHI 1 – 2 NSH · CHI 12% → 26% +14CHI 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P216:20Cole Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (2), Michael McCarron (2)CHI 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 75% → 89% +15NSH 75% → 89%+15 pts
- P312:15Tyler Johnson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (5)CHI 2 – 3 NSH · CHI 2% → 14% +13CHI 2% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Fair odds
- NSH -122
- CHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +33 Elo | NSH 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 30th of 3142.6% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 13th of 314–4 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.