Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Trevor van RiemsdykPoints1
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Luke KuninPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:48Luke Kunin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (1), Ty Emberson (2)1–2
- P216:25Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (4), Martin Fehervary (3)1–1
- P110:23Fabian Zetterlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Okhotiuk (5), Mikael Granlund (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:23Fabian Zetterlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Okhotiuk (5), Mikael Granlund (6)WSH 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 69% +15SJ 53% → 69%+15 pts
- P216:25Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (4), Martin Fehervary (3)WSH 1 – 1 SJ · WSH 26% → 48% +22WSH 26% → 48%+22 pts
- P312:48Luke Kunin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (1), Ty Emberson (2)WSH 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 51% → 86% +35SJ 51% → 86%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 48%
- Fair odds
- SJ -115
- WSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −3 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 1.631st of 31 |
| 10th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −2.631st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 39.9%31st of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%25th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 6th of 313–2 | Road vs home | 4–827th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.