San Jose Sharks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mike HoffmanGoals1
- Kyle BurroughsAssists1
- Mike HoffmanPoints1
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals2
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists3
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:46Eeli Tolvanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (6)1–7
- P315:32Mike Hoffman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Okhotiuk (4), Kyle Burroughs (1)1–6
- P32:22Eeli Tolvanen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (12), Brian Dumoulin (3)0–6
- P23:36Jared McCann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (6), Oliver Bjorkstrand (11)0–5
- P118:45Yanni Gourde Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Will Borgen (6), Oliver Bjorkstrand (10)0–4
- P111:07Adam Larsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (8), Jared McCann (4)0–3
- P110:36Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (7), Eeli Tolvanen (10)0–2
- P11:28Brandon Tanev Goal (2) Poke, assists: Alex Wennberg (6), Jamie Oleksiak (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:28Brandon Tanev Goal (2) Poke, assists: Alex Wennberg (6), Jamie Oleksiak (5)SJ 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 56% → 70% +14SEA 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P110:36Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (7), Eeli Tolvanen (10)SJ 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 70% → 83% +12SEA 70% → 83%+12 pts
- P111:07Adam Larsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (8), Jared McCann (4)SJ 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 83% → 91% +8SEA 83% → 91%+8 pts
- P118:45Yanni Gourde Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Will Borgen (6), Oliver Bjorkstrand (10)SJ 0 – 4 SEA · SEA 93% → 97% +4SEA 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P23:36Jared McCann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (6), Oliver Bjorkstrand (11)SJ 0 – 5 SEA · SEA 98% → >99% +2SEA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Fair odds
- SEA -126
- SJ +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +62 Elo | SEA 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.5 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.7 | Margin | −0.928th of 31 |
| 31st of 3139.3% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 31st of 310–8 | Road vs home | 3–625th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.