Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints3
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists2
- Tyler MyersPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:49Nils Hoglander Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (7), Ilya Mikheyev (4)4–3
- P36:48Matty Beniers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (7)4–2
- P34:19Yanni Gourde Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (5), Eeli Tolvanen (9)3–2
- P215:48Quinn Hughes Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (17), Elias Pettersson (20)2–2
- P213:04Jordan Eberle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (9), Justin Schultz (5)2–1
- P25:43Jamie Oleksiak Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (7), Jordan Eberle (6)1–1
- P15:34J.T. Miller Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Tyler Myers (6), Phillip Di Giuseppe (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:43Jamie Oleksiak Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (7), Jordan Eberle (6)SEA 1 – 1 VAN · SEA 27% → 45% +18SEA 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P213:04Jordan Eberle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (9), Justin Schultz (5)SEA 2 – 1 VAN · SEA 45% → 66% +21SEA 45% → 66%+21 pts
- P215:48Quinn Hughes Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (17), Elias Pettersson (20)SEA 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 32% → 54% +22VAN 32% → 54%+22 pts
- P34:19Yanni Gourde Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (5), Eeli Tolvanen (9)SEA 3 – 2 VAN · SEA 46% → 73% +27SEA 46% → 73%+27 pts
- P36:48Matty Beniers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (7)SEA 4 – 2 VAN · SEA 76% → 93% +17SEA 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 65%
- Fair odds
- VAN -133
- SEA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +13 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +107 Elo | VAN 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 4.21st of 31 |
| 24th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.0 | Margin | +1.81st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 92.5%3rd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 313–6 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.