New York Islanders at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Kraken- Kailer YamamotoGoals1
- Kailer YamamotoAssists1
- Kailer YamamotoPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kailer Yamamoto Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Oliver Wahlstrom Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Jordan Eberle Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Bo Horvat Goal Snap Shot2–3
- P34:50Kailer Yamamoto Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jaden Schwartz (7), Eeli Tolvanen (8)3–3
- P31:48Noah Dobson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (11), Kyle Palmieri (6)3–2
- P214:25Casey Cizikas Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mathew Barzal (10), Ryan Pulock (4)2–2
- P118:29Alex Wennberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (8), Jordan Eberle (5)1–2
- P19:54Matty Beniers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (14), Kailer Yamamoto (3)1–1
- P13:46Anders Lee Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Bo Horvat (8), Brock Nelson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:54Matty Beniers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (14), Kailer Yamamoto (3)NYI 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 38% → 54% +16SEA 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P118:29Alex Wennberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (8), Jordan Eberle (5)NYI 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 53% → 70% +17SEA 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P214:25Casey Cizikas Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mathew Barzal (10), Ryan Pulock (4)NYI 2 – 2 SEA · NYI 27% → 47% +21NYI 27% → 47%+21 pts
- P31:48Noah Dobson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (11), Kyle Palmieri (6)NYI 3 – 2 SEA · NYI 48% → 73% +25NYI 48% → 73%+25 pts
- P34:50Kailer Yamamoto Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jaden Schwartz (7), Eeli Tolvanen (8)NYI 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 25% → 52% +27SEA 25% → 52%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- NYI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | SEA and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +19 | −9 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.625th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −1.130th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.1% | Shot share | 48.0%24th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 22nd of 312–4 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.