New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:36Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (16), Brock Boeser (8)3–4
- P38:30Filip Hronek Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (20), Brock Boeser (7)3–3
- P211:03Brock Boeser Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (15), Quinn Hughes (19)3–2
- P28:33Bo Horvat Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (9)3–1
- P24:39J.T. Miller Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (19), Andrei Kuzmenko (11)2–1
- P18:52Brock Nelson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (9), Mathew Barzal (8)2–0
- P17:30Pierre Engvall Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Wahlstrom (1), Sebastian Aho (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:39J.T. Miller Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (19), Andrei Kuzmenko (11)NYI 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 21% → 37% +16VAN 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P28:33Bo Horvat Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (9)NYI 3 – 1 VAN · NYI 64% → 81% +17NYI 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P211:03Brock Boeser Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (15), Quinn Hughes (19)NYI 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 18% → 35% +17VAN 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P38:30Filip Hronek Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (20), Brock Boeser (7)NYI 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 23% → 53% +31VAN 23% → 53%+31 pts
- OT2:36Quinn Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (16), Brock Boeser (8)NYI 3 – 4 VAN · VAN 52% → 97% +45VAN 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 67%
- Fair odds
- VAN -136
- NYI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −22 | +16 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +124 Elo | VAN 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 4.41st of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +2.21st of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.3% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 92.8%4th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 21st of 312–3 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.