Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Sam LaffertyAssists1
- Elias PetterssonPoints1
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:08Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (6)2–5
- P310:06Nils Hoglander Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (5), Sam Lafferty (4)2–4
- P35:53Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (5), Blake Coleman (4)1–4
- P219:24Noah Hanifin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3), Elias Lindholm (8)1–3
- P210:49Dillon Dube Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (5), Rasmus Andersson (5)1–2
- P117:55MacKenzie Weegar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (3), Elias Lindholm (7)1–1
- P19:38Elias Pettersson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (17), Quinn Hughes (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:38Elias Pettersson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (17), Quinn Hughes (21)VAN 1 – 0 CGY · VAN 43% → 58% +16VAN 43% → 58%+16 pts
- P117:55MacKenzie Weegar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (3), Elias Lindholm (7)VAN 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 40% → 57% +17CGY 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P210:49Dillon Dube Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (5), Rasmus Andersson (5)VAN 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 56% → 75% +19CGY 56% → 75%+19 pts
- P219:24Noah Hanifin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3), Elias Lindholm (8)VAN 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 77% → 91% +14CGY 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P35:53Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (5), Blake Coleman (4)VAN 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 95% → >99% +5CGY 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 54%
- Fair odds
- CGY -139
- VAN +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +3 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +26 Elo | CGY 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.4 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 1st of 31+2.1 | Margin | −0.928th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 52.2%9th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–3 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.