Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Rasmus AnderssonGoals1
- Rasmus AnderssonAssists2
- Rasmus AnderssonPoints3
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Vince DunnPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:28Rasmus Andersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (6), Jonathan Huberdeau (8)4–3
- P315:53Andrew Mangiapane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (6), Chris Tanev (3)3–3
- P210:25Jared McCann Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (3)2–3
- P28:21Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (15), Yanni Gourde (6)2–2
- P111:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (7), Nazem Kadri (9)2–1
- P18:42Vince Dunn Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (5)1–1
- P11:16Elias Lindholm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (6), MacKenzie Weegar (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (7), Nazem Kadri (9)CGY 2 – 1 SEA · CGY 45% → 61% +16CGY 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P28:21Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (15), Yanni Gourde (6)CGY 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 34% → 54% +20SEA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P210:25Jared McCann Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (3)CGY 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 54% → 73% +19SEA 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P315:53Andrew Mangiapane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (6), Chris Tanev (3)CGY 3 – 3 SEA · CGY 8% → 49% +41CGY 8% → 49%+41 pts
- OT3:28Rasmus Andersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (6), Jonathan Huberdeau (8)CGY 4 – 3 SEA · CGY 49% → 99% +50CGY 49% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −5 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.927th of 31 |
| 8th of 3153.0% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–6 | Road vs home | 3–524th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.