New York Islanders at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Flames- Martin PospisilGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Oliver Wahlstrom Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Bo Horvat Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal Backhand2–1
- P313:43Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (5), Elias Lindholm (9)4–4
- P33:32Brock Nelson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (7), Sebastian Aho (4)4–3
- P33:12MacKenzie Weegar Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (5), Nazem Kadri (8)3–3
- P217:03Blake Coleman Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Nick DeSimone (4), Jonathan Huberdeau (7)3–2
- P28:07Mathew Barzal Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P24:07Kyle Palmieri Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (9), Noah Dobson (10)2–1
- P116:52Hudson Fasching Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (4), Brock Nelson (4)1–1
- P112:16Martin Pospisil Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (7), Connor Zary (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:07Kyle Palmieri Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (9), Noah Dobson (10)NYI 2 – 1 CGY · NYI 45% → 64% +19NYI 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P217:03Blake Coleman Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Nick DeSimone (4), Jonathan Huberdeau (7)NYI 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 14% → 31% +17CGY 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P33:12MacKenzie Weegar Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (5), Nazem Kadri (8)NYI 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 27% → 53% +26CGY 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P33:32Brock Nelson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (7), Sebastian Aho (4)NYI 4 – 3 CGY · NYI 47% → 73% +26NYI 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P313:43Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (5), Elias Lindholm (9)NYI 4 – 4 CGY · CGY 14% → 52% +38CGY 14% → 52%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 60%
- Fair odds
- CGY -128
- NYI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −22 | +6 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +73 Elo | CGY 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.725th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.9% | Shot share | 53.0%9th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 25th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.