San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:10J.T. Miller Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (9), Quinn Hughes (22)1–3
- P30:48Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (6), Mikael Granlund (4)1–2
- P219:59Sam Lafferty Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (1)0–2
- P213:07Quinn Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3), Anthony Beauvillier (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:07Quinn Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3), Anthony Beauvillier (5)SJ 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 55% → 75% +20VAN 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P219:59Sam Lafferty Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (1)SJ 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 77% → 92% +14VAN 77% → 92%+14 pts
- P30:48Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (6), Mikael Granlund (4)SJ 1 – 2 VAN · SJ 8% → 23% +14SJ 8% → 23%+14 pts
- P37:10J.T. Miller Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (9), Quinn Hughes (22)SJ 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 81% → 95% +14VAN 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 67%
- Fair odds
- VAN -136
- SJ +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +8 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +126 Elo | VAN 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.5 | Goals scored | 4.21st of 31 |
| 31st of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.8 | Margin | +1.71st of 31 |
| 31st of 3139.1% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 92.1%4th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 31st of 310–7 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.