Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists3
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Sharks- Mike HoffmanGoals1
- Calen AddisonAssists2
- Mike HoffmanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:49Brock Boeser Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (20), Elias Pettersson (21)3–4
- P31:48Mike Hoffman Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mikael Granlund (5), Calen Addison (9)2–4
- P30:22Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Calen Addison (8), Mario Ferraro (3)2–3
- P219:39Brock Boeser Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (19), Filip Hronek (20)2–2
- P214:05Fabian Zetterlund Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (12)1–2
- P115:37Filip Hronek Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (18), Quinn Hughes (25)1–1
- P19:58Ty Emberson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (11), Mike Hoffman (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:58Ty Emberson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (11), Mike Hoffman (2)VAN 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 56% → 71% +15SJ 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P115:37Filip Hronek Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (18), Quinn Hughes (25)VAN 1 – 1 SJ · VAN 28% → 44% +16VAN 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P214:05Fabian Zetterlund Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (12)VAN 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 55% → 75% +20SJ 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P219:39Brock Boeser Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (19), Filip Hronek (20)VAN 2 – 2 SJ · VAN 23% → 46% +23VAN 23% → 46%+23 pts
- P30:22Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Calen Addison (8), Mario Ferraro (3)VAN 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 54% → 77% +23SJ 54% → 77%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 48%
- Fair odds
- SJ -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −14 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +15 Elo | VAN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.0 | Goals scored | 1.531st of 31 |
| 4th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 4.331st of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.6 | Margin | −2.831st of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 39.9%31st of 31 |
| 5th of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%25th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 10th of 317–5 | Road vs home | 3–830th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 2–0 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.