Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jesse Ylönen Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Nick Suzuki Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00William Eklund Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P33:26Cole Caufield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (4), Cayden Primeau (1)2–2
- P218:02Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (1), Cole Caufield (11)1–2
- P212:30William Eklund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (7), Tomas Hertl (10)0–2
- P25:06Mike Hoffman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (4), Tomas Hertl (9)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:06Mike Hoffman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (4), Tomas Hertl (9)MTL 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 71% +18SJ 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P212:30William Eklund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (7), Tomas Hertl (10)MTL 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 73% → 87% +15SJ 73% → 87%+15 pts
- P218:02Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (1), Cole Caufield (11)MTL 1 – 2 SJ · MTL 10% → 25% +15MTL 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P33:26Cole Caufield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (4), Cayden Primeau (1)MTL 2 – 2 SJ · MTL 23% → 48% +25MTL 23% → 48%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 50%
- Fair odds
- SJ -118
- MTL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −7 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ 0 Elo | SJ 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 1.531st of 31 |
| 27th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 4.431st of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −2.931st of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.7% | Shot share | 39.0%31st of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 18th of 313–4 | Road vs home | 3–727th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.