Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Kraken- Tye KartyeGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Tye KartyePoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:30Ilya Mikheyev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (5), Tyler Myers (8)5–1
- P312:38Nils Hoglander Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Aman (2)4–1
- P39:43Sam Lafferty Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (19), Quinn Hughes (24)3–1
- P217:29Tye Kartye Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (16)2–1
- P212:07Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (4), Nils Aman (1)2–0
- P15:05Teddy Blueger Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:05Teddy Blueger Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneVAN 1 – 0 SEA · VAN 46% → 61% +15VAN 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P212:07Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (4), Nils Aman (1)VAN 2 – 0 SEA · VAN 68% → 84% +16VAN 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P217:29Tye Kartye Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (16)VAN 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 13% → 30% +17SEA 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P39:43Sam Lafferty Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (19), Quinn Hughes (24)VAN 3 – 1 SEA · VAN 80% → 96% +16VAN 80% → 96%+16 pts
- P312:38Nils Hoglander Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Aman (2)VAN 4 – 1 SEA · VAN 98% → >99% +2VAN 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Fair odds
- SEA -117
- VAN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +6 Elo | VAN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.0 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 4th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.5 | Margin | −0.624th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.3% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 13th of 316–5 | Road vs home | 4–620th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.