Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Nils HoglanderGoals1
- Sam LaffertyAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists1
- Jonathan DrouinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:38Mikko Rantanen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (17), Valeri Nichushkin (9)2–5
- P312:38Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P31:24Riley Tufte Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Miles Wood (4), Ross Colton (3)2–3
- P29:04J.T. Miller Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (23), Filip Hronek (18)2–2
- P118:43Jonathan Drouin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (24), Bowen Byram (2)1–2
- P117:37Valeri Nichushkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (13), Jonathan Drouin (3)1–1
- P116:23Nils Hoglander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (6), Sam Lafferty (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:23Nils Hoglander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (6), Sam Lafferty (5)VAN 1 – 0 COL · VAN 46% → 63% +17VAN 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P117:37Valeri Nichushkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (13), Jonathan Drouin (3)VAN 1 – 1 COL · COL 37% → 54% +17COL 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P118:43Jonathan Drouin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (24), Bowen Byram (2)VAN 1 – 2 COL · COL 54% → 70% +17COL 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P29:04J.T. Miller Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (23), Filip Hronek (18)VAN 2 – 2 COL · VAN 28% → 47% +19VAN 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P31:24Riley Tufte Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Miles Wood (4), Ross Colton (3)VAN 2 – 3 COL · COL 52% → 76% +24COL 52% → 76%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Fair odds
- COL -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −8 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +8 Elo | COL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 314.1 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.7 | Margin | +0.76th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.1% | Shot share | 55.0%2nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.