Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists3
- Cale MakarPoints3
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Gustav NyquistAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Yakov Trenin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (2)3–4
- P319:22Filip Forsberg Goal (9) Batted, assists: Gustav Nyquist (10), Colton Sissons (3)3–3
- P213:33Valeri Nichushkin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (23), Nathan MacKinnon (16)3–2
- P28:55Devon Toews Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (15), Cale Makar (22)2–2
- P23:56Jeremy Lauzon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (9), Ryan O'Reilly (8)1–2
- P119:42Filip Forsberg Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (1), Philip Tomasino (3)1–1
- P114:00Andrew Cogliano Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (8), Cale Makar (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:56Jeremy Lauzon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (9), Ryan O'Reilly (8)COL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 53% → 71% +18NSH 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P28:55Devon Toews Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (15), Cale Makar (22)COL 2 – 2 NSH · COL 28% → 47% +19COL 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P213:33Valeri Nichushkin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (23), Nathan MacKinnon (16)COL 3 – 2 NSH · COL 47% → 68% +21COL 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P319:22Filip Forsberg Goal (9) Batted, assists: Gustav Nyquist (10), Colton Sissons (3)COL 3 – 3 NSH · NSH <1% → 50% +50NSH <1% → 50%+50 pts
- P319:38Yakov Trenin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (2)COL 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 50% → >99% +50NSH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 51%
- Fair odds
- NSH -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −4 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +7 Elo | NSH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 12th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.3% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 5th of 316–3 | Road vs home | 4–311th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.