Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:12Brock Boeser Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (22)1–3
- P30:32Elias Pettersson Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Tyler Myers (9), Ilya Mikheyev (5)1–2
- P25:10Ryan Strome Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (7), Frank Vatrano (8)1–1
- P16:34Brock Boeser Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Filip Hronek (21), J.T. Miller (21)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:34Brock Boeser Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Filip Hronek (21), J.T. Miller (21)ANA 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 70% +14VAN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P25:10Ryan Strome Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (7), Frank Vatrano (8)ANA 1 – 1 VAN · ANA 27% → 45% +18ANA 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P30:32Elias Pettersson Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Tyler Myers (9), Ilya Mikheyev (5)ANA 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 54% → 77% +23VAN 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P319:12Brock Boeser Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (22)ANA 1 – 3 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 62%
- Fair odds
- VAN -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +83 Elo | VAN 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 31 |
| 26th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +1.51st of 31 |
| 27th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 49.9%18th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%6th of 31 |
| 31st of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 5th of 315–3 | Road vs home | 7–23rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.