Washington Capitals at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Kings- Arthur KaliyevGoals1
- Andreas EnglundAssists1
- Arthur KaliyevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:30Connor McMichael Goal (5) Batted, assists: Anthony Mantha (2), Aliaksei Protas (7)2–1
- P112:12Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (5), Aliaksei Protas (6)1–1
- P19:04Arthur Kaliyev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Englund (6), Jordan Spence (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:04Arthur Kaliyev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andreas Englund (6), Jordan Spence (9)WSH 0 – 1 LA · LA 56% → 70% +15LA 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P112:12Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (5), Aliaksei Protas (6)WSH 1 – 1 LA · WSH 29% → 45% +15WSH 29% → 45%+15 pts
- P218:30Connor McMichael Goal (5) Batted, assists: Anthony Mantha (2), Aliaksei Protas (7)WSH 2 – 1 LA · WSH 46% → 70% +23WSH 46% → 70%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Fair odds
- LA -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +20 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +75 Elo | LA 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +1.42nd of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.9%6th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 11th of 313–3 | Road vs home | 3–628th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.