Montreal Canadiens at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Trevor MoorePoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:26Trevor Moore Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (14)0–4
- P33:14Trevor Lewis Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1)0–3
- P29:55Trevor Moore Goal (10) Wrap-around, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (6), Pierre-Luc Dubois (6)0–2
- P115:28Carl Grundstrom Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (5), Andreas Englund (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:28Carl Grundstrom Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (5), Andreas Englund (5)MTL 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 71% +16LA 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P29:55Trevor Moore Goal (10) Wrap-around, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (6), Pierre-Luc Dubois (6)MTL 0 – 2 LA · LA 73% → 87% +14LA 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P33:14Trevor Lewis Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1)MTL 0 – 3 LA · LA 93% → 98% +6LA 93% → 98%+6 pts
- P313:26Trevor Moore Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (14)MTL 0 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 58%
- Fair odds
- LA -125
- MTL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | LA and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −25 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LA: Pheonix Copley: team allows 0.62 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +53 Elo | LA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +1.22nd of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.5% | Shot share | 53.3%6th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 14th of 314–4 | Road vs home | 2–631st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.