New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints3
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals2
- Bobby BrinkAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:28Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (21), Nico Hischier (3)4–3
- P319:09Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (10), Bobby Brink (7)3–3
- P315:00Tyson Foerster Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (8), Sean Couturier (10)3–2
- P34:31Tyler Toffoli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2), Jack Hughes (20)3–1
- P211:49Morgan Frost Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (5), Cam York (5)2–1
- P115:12Jack Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (9), Dawson Mercer (4)2–0
- P13:10Alexander Holtz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McLeod (5), Colin Miller (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:10Alexander Holtz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McLeod (5), Colin Miller (1)NJ 1 – 0 PHI · NJ 44% → 59% +15NJ 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P211:49Morgan Frost Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (5), Cam York (5)NJ 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 17% → 33% +17PHI 17% → 33%+17 pts
- P34:31Tyler Toffoli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2), Jack Hughes (20)NJ 3 – 1 PHI · NJ 74% → 91% +17NJ 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P319:09Tyson Foerster Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Scott Laughton (10), Bobby Brink (7)NJ 3 – 3 PHI · PHI <1% → 51% +51PHI <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:28Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (21), Nico Hischier (3)NJ 4 – 3 PHI · NJ 48% → 90% +42NJ 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -126
- NJ +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +7 | NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +61 Elo | PHI 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.7% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 7th of 315–4 | Road vs home | 5–618th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.